Obamanos: Phil-Am for Bam!

 
 
Obama closes in on McCain
home turf of Arizona –2-7%,
Georgia –5%, Missouri –2%
 
 
Barack beats Mac in Pennsylvania 12-14%,
Nevada 7-12%, Colorado 8-9%, Virginia 7-9%,
North Carolina 6%, Ohio 4-9%, Florida 2-4%
 
 
By MITCH R. CONFESOR
a.k.a Jason Hussein Bourne
(OIC) Obamanos-in-Chief
Filipinos for Obama Movement
Philippines-America for Obama
 
 
MANILA – Amid racist assassination threats from white neo-nazi supremacists, the issue of race doesn’t seem to affect the inevitable outcome of the race to the White House with the historic victorious run of Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois outpacing Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
 
And speaking of his losing rival’s home state, Obama is now closing in on McCain’s very own precious turf, as the latest Arizona State University/PBS affiliate Channel 8 survey conducted on October 23-26 shows the Democrat catching up on the Republican in Arizona by –2 percent, at 44-46 percent, with an error margin of 3 points.
 
The latest Time/CNN survey conducted from October 23-28 shows Obama slowly narrowing the gap between him and McCain in Arizona by –7 percent, at 46-53 percent with an error margin of 4 points.
 
And the same Time/CNN survey shows Obama also slimming McCain’s lead in two other ex-strongly Republican states: in Georgia by –5 percent, at 47-52 percent, and in Missouri by –2 percent, at 48-50 percent, both with an error margin of 3.5 points.
 
Yet the Time/CNN poll and two other surveys conducted from October 22-26 all show Obama outrunning McCain in Pennsylvania by 12 percent, at 55-43 percent in Time/CNN, with an error margin of 4 points.
 
The 12-percent Obama lead in Pennsylvania is also reflected in the latest Quinnipiac University battleground poll, at 53-41 percent with an error margin of 2.7 points, and in the latest Associated Press/GfK battleground survey with an error margin of 4 points.
 
The Time/CNN poll shows Obama leaving McCain behind in Virginia by 9 percent, at 53-44 percent, and in Colorado by 8 percent, at 53-45 percent, both with an error margin of 3.5 points.
 
The same survey shows Obama outwitting McCain in Nevada by 7 percent, at 52-45 percent, and in North Carolina by 6 percent, at 52-46 percent, both with an error margin of 4 points.  It shows Obama leading McCain in Ohio and Florida by 4 percent, both at 51-47 percent, with an error margin ranging from 3.5 to 4 points.
 
However, the Quinnipiac Univ. poll shows Obama defeating McCain in Ohio by 9 percent, at 51-42 percent, and in Florida by 2 percent, at 47-45 percent, with an error margin of 2.7 points.
 
But while the latest Marist poll conducted from October 24-27 shows Obama ahead of McCain in Ohio by 3 percent, at 48-45 percent, it shows the Democrat trouncing his rival in Pennsylvania by 14 percent, at 55-41 percent, both with an error margin of 4 points.
 
Aside from his lead both in Pennsylvania and Nevada by 12 percent in the AP/GfK survey conducted on October 22-26, Obama also stands on firmer grounds in New Hampshire by 18 percent, in Colorado by 9 percent, and in Virginia and Ohio by 7 percent, with an error margin of 4 points and a tie in both Florida and North Carolina.
 

 
Obama ups McCain
now in Nevada 10%,
Ohio 9%, Florida 7%
 
 
Barack beats Mac in Iowa 10-15%,
New Hampshire 5-15%, Virginia 11%
 
 
By MITCH R. CONFESOR
a.k.a Jason Hussein Bourne
(OIC) Obamanos-in-Chief
Filipinos for Obama Movement
Philippines-America for Obama
 
 
MANILA – With less than a week to the November 4 election in the United States, the lead of Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois against his losing rival Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona continues to grow in the crucial battleground or swing states that will determine the eventual winner of the race to the Oval Office.
 
The latest Suffolk University survey conducted on October 23-27 shows Obama leading McCain in Nevada by 10 percent, at 50-40 percent with an error margin of 4.6 points.
 
And the latest LA Times/Bloomberg poll conducted on October 25-27 shows Obama beating McCain in Ohio by 9 percent, at 49-40 percent, and in Florida by 7 percent, at 50-43 percent, both with an error margin of 4 points.
 
Meanwhile, the latest Marist surveys show Obama pulling ahead of McCain in a poll conducted on October 23-24 in Iowa by 10 percent, at 52-42 percent, and in a separate poll conducted on October 22-23 in New Hampshire by 5 percent, at 50-45 percent, both with an error margin of 4 points.
 
But two surveys separately conducted in Iowa and New Hampshire show Obama pounding McCain in both states by 15 percent, both at 54-39 percent.  The Iowa survey from Lee Enterprises was conducted on October 19-22 with an error margin of 4 points, while the New Hampshire survey from the Boston Globe was conducted on October 18-22 with an error margin of 3.5 points.
 
Moreover, the latest Virginia Commonwealth University survey conducted on October 20-22 shows Obama trouncing McCain in Virginia by 11 percent, at 51-40 percent with an error margin of 4 points.
 

 
 
Barack still leads in US
Electoral College Votes,
surpasses 270 threshold
 
 
References:
 
CNN Electoral Calculator
 
CNN Electoral Map Polling
 
Yahoo Electoral Dashboard
 
Politico/RCP Swingstate Map
 

 
Big 10 battleground: Bam
leads 8 states by 2 digits
 
 
Obama creeps into known Republican
strongholds of Montana, West Virginia
 
 
By MITCH R. CONFESOR
a.k.a Jason Hussein Bourne
(OIC) Obamanos-in-Chief
Filipinos for Obama Movement
Philippines-America for Obama
 
 
MANILA – With barely 11 days to go to the November 4 elections in the United States, a major survey of the Big 10 battlegrounds crucial to the U.S. presidential race shows Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois leading all polls by double digits in eight swing states against his losing rival, Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
 
The Big Ten Battleground Poll, a public opinion survey of U.S. Midwest voters conducted by eight various universities, shows Obama outracing McCain in Illinois by 29 percent, in Michigan by 22 percent, in Minnesota by 19 percent, in Wisconsin and Iowa by 13 percent, in Ohio by 12 percent (and by 14 percent in another university survey), in Pennsylvania by 11 percent (and by 13 percent in the other university survey), and in Indiana by 10 percent.
 
Two university surveys unaffiliated with eight of the Big 10 show Obama leading McCain in Florida by 5-7 percent and even in Montana by 4 percent, while a statewide poll of polls shows the Democrat slimming the established Republican lead in West Virginia by –2 percent as he creeps into traditional red-state strongholds.
 
In pollings conducted from October 19-22 with an error margin of 4.2 points, the Big 10 polls show Obama outpacing McCain at 61-32 percent in Illinois, 58-36 percent in Michigan, 57-38 percent in Minnesota, 53-40 percent in Wisconsin, 52-39 percent in Iowa, 53-41 percent in Ohio, 52-41 percent in Pennsylvania, and 51-41 percent in Indiana.
 
Giving a 10-percent nationwide lead for Obama at 52-42 percent with an error margin of 3.1 points, the Big 10 survey was made possible through the University of Wisconsin-Madison with the participation of the University of Illinois, the University of Michigan, the Michigan State University, the Northwestern University, the University of Iowa, the Ohio State University, and the Penn State University.
 
Meanwhile, the latest St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald survey conducted from October 20-22 shows Obama beating McCain in Florida by 7 percent, at 49-42 percent with an error margin of 3.5 points.
 
Moreover, the latest Quinnipiac University survey conducted from October 16-21 shows Obama defeating McCain in Ohio by 14 percent, in Pennsylvania by 13 percent, and in Florida by 5 percent.  With an error margin of 2.7 points, the Quinnipiac Univ. poll shows Obama outscoring McCain at 52-38 percent in Ohio, 53-40 percent in Pennsylvania, and 49-44 percent in Florida.
 
In another state poll, the Montana State University-Billings survey conducted from October 17-20 shows Obama now trouncing McCain even in Montana by 4 percent, at 44-40 percent with an error margin of 5 points.
 
In the latest CNN state polls of polls, Obama leads in Pennsylvania by 10 percent, in Virginia by 8 percent, in Ohio by 7 percent, in Nevada by 4 percent, in Florida by 3 percent, and statewide by 8 percent.  McCain only leads in West Virginia now by a mere 2 points, at 47-45.
 
The CNN Poll of Polls, which does not have a sampling error, shows Obama trampling McCain at 51-41 percent in Pennsylvania, 51-43 percent in Virginia, 50-43 percent in Ohio, 49-45 percent in Nevada, 48-45 percent in Florida, and 50-42 percent statewide.
 
The latest CBS News/New York Times survey conducted from October 19-22 shows Obama pulling out of McCain by 13 percent, at 52-39 percent with an error margin of 3 points, while the ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll shows the Democrat leading the Republican by 11 percent, at 54-43 percent.
 
 
bigtenpoll: Big Ten Battleground Poll
A public opinion survey of U.S. Midwest voters
 

 
… From red to purple then to blue
Obama keeps ex-reddish states in play
 
 
By MITCH R. CONFESOR
a.k.a Jason Hussein Bourne
(OIC) Obamanos-in-Chief
Filipinos for Obama Movement
Philippines-America for Obama
 
 
MANILA – With the United States economy in the forefront of the U.S. election cycle, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has kept once Republican-leaning states in play as he continues to outpace his rival in the race for the White House.
 
The latest TIME/CNN battleground survey shows that Obama outraces Sen. John McCain of Arizona in the crucial purplish states that will decide the outcome on who will be the next American president.
 
Obama bests McCain in Virginia by 10 percent, in Nevada by 5 percent, and in North Carolina and Ohio by 4 percent, according to the TIME/CNN poll conducted among likely voters from October 19-21, with an error margin of 4 percent.
 
The junior Illinois senator defeats the senior Arizona senator 54-44 percent in Virginia, 51-46 percent in Nevada, 51-47 percent in North Carolina, and 50-46 percent in Ohio, the TIME/CNN poll reveals.
 
Meanwhile, in the latest FOX/Opinion Dynamics statewide poll conducted from October 20-21, Obama beats McCain by 9 points at 49-40 percent, with an error margin of 3 percent.
 
And in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal nationwide survey conducted from October 17-20, Obama pulls ahead of McCain by 10 points at 52-42 percent, with an error margin of 2.9 percent.
 
Moreover, in the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll, Obama zooms ahead of McCain by 12 points at 52-40 percent, also with an error margin of 2.9 percent.
 
Finally, in the latest Pew survey conducted from October 16-19, Obama carries a notable lead against McCain by 14 points at 53-39 percent, with an error margin of 2.5 percent.
 

 
Barack now leads
in swing counties
of 6 purple states
 
 
By MITCH R. CONFESOR
a.k.a Jason Hussein Bourne
(OIC) Obamanos-in-Chief
Filipinos for Obama Movement
Philippines-America for Obama
 
 
POLITICO.com’s Alexander Burns has written that Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois holds key leads in six crucial counties that will go a long way toward determining the eventual winner of the 2008 United States presidential elections in the six important swing states of Missouri, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina, according to a new Politico/Insider Advantage survey.
 
Burns also writes on October 17 that recent public polling has shown Obama winning all four states in which these county-level polls have been conducted.  He writes that the RealClearPolitics polling average has Obama ahead in Pennsylvania by 14 percent, Virginia by 8.1 percent, Ohio by 3.2 percent, and Missouri by 1.8 percent.
 
He also writes on October 21 that Obama has made new gains in two key counties that could tip the balance in the swing states of Nevada and North Carolina, also according to a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll.  He says that the RealClearPolitics polling average has Obama leading in both states, ahead in Nevada by an average of 4.2 percent and in North Carolina by an average of 2.3 percent.
 
Together, according to Burns, both Nevada and North Carolina represent 20 electoral votes – as many as the key battleground state of Ohio, which decided the 2004 election.  And given Obama’s current standing in the Electoral College Votes (ECVs), where he has solid polling leads in states adding up to 264 electoral votes, winning either Nevada or North Carolina could be enough to secure the presidency.
 
Also, he writes that Obama is poised to expand on recent Democratic gains in three populous suburban counties, based on the Politico/InsiderAdvantage telephone surveys.  They are:
 
• Missouri’s St. Louis County;
 
• Virginia’s Prince William County; and
 
• Pennsylvania’s Bucks County, a politically competitive but historically Republican suburb that shares a border with Philadelphia.
 
Ohio’s Franklin County, home to Columbus and its suburbs, is according to the survey found to have Obama with the lead.  Other important points below:
 
• St. Louis County – Obama 53, McCain 37
conducted Oct. 13; error margin +/-4%
 
• (In 2004, Sen. John F. Kerry, the Democratic nominee, carried St. Louis County, the most populous county in the state, 54-45 percent; suburban St. Louis County does not include Missouri’s second-largest city, St. Louis.)
 
• Prince William County – Obama 50, McCain 42
conducted Oct. 14; error margin +/-6%
 
• (Prince William is a Washington, D.C., suburb that voted for Republican President George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004.  Between 1976 and 2004, Prince William County supported Republican presidential candidates by an average margin of 18 points.)
 
• Bucks County – Obama 47, McCain 41
conducted Oct. 14; error margin +/-6%
 
• (In 2004, Kerry carried the county by a slim 51 percent to 48 percent.)
 
• Franklin County – Obama 45, McCain 40
conducted Oct. 13; error margin +/-6%
 
• (Kerry carried Franklin County, the state’s second-most populous county after Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County, 54-45 percent in 2004.)
 
• Reno, Nevada’s Washoe County – Obama 50, McCain 40
 
• North Carolina’s Wake County (home to Raleigh and its suburbs) – Obama 52, McCain 43
 
• Surveys on both counties conducted Oct. 19, error margin +/- 5%
 
• (Bush won both these counties in 2000 and 2004.  In his second presidential bid, Bush won Wake by a thin margin of 51-49, and bested Kerry in Washoe, 51-47. As the second-most populous counties in their respective states, Wake and Washoe are critical to McCain’s chances.)
 

Bam beats Mac 364-174
in newest ECV results

 
Obama outscores McCain 11% in latest Gallup poll
 
 
By MITCH R. CONFESOR
a.k.a Jason Hussein Bourne
(OIC) Obamanos-in-Chief
Filipinos for Obama Movement
Philippines-America for Obama
 
 
MANILA – In the race for the 270 Electoral College Votes (ECVs) needed to clinch the White House, the latest Politico/RealClearPolitics polling average shows Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois is the landslide victor as the next President of the United States.
 
In the Politico/RCP average, Obama garners 364 ECVs as compared to 174 for his losing rival, Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona, as he also leads by 11 percent in the latest Gallup Poll daily tracking numbers, where the junior Illinois senator scores 52 percent while the senior Arizona senator merely gets 41 percent.
 
According to the Politico/RCP average, Obama wins 12 out of 13 purple states, the battleground swing states that will likely decide the final outcome of the race for the next U.S. president.  McCain is capable of defeating Obama by 2.5 percent only in Indiana.
 
Obama however defeats McCain by 12.4 percent in Pennsylvania, 10.7 percent in New Hampshire, 8.0 percent in Wisconsin, 7.3 percent in New Mexico, 7.0 percent in Michigan, 4.8 percent in Virginia, 4.0 percent each in Colorado and Ohio, 3.0 percent each in Nevada and Florida, 0.6 percent in North Carolina, and 0.3 percent in Missouri.
 
The Democratic frontrunner beats his Republican rival in Pennsylvania with a 51.6-39.2% lead, in New Hampshire with a 52.0-41.3% lead, in Wisconsin with a 51.0-43.0% lead, in New Mexico with a 49.8-42.5% lead, in Michigan with a 49.1-42.1% lead, in Virginia with a 49.9-45.1% lead, in Colorado with a 49.3-45.3% lead, in Ohio with a 48.9-44.9% lead, in Nevada with a 49.6-46.6% lead, in Florida with a 48.3-45.3% lead, in North Carolina with a 48.2-47.6% lead, and in Missouri with a 47.8-47.5% lead.
 
By ECV ranking, the crucial states in Obama’s column are Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), Wisconsin and Ohio (20 each), Michigan (17), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Colorado (9), New Mexico and Nevada (5 each), and New Hampshire (4).  McCain however outshines Obama in Indiana (11) with a 48.5-46.0% lead.
 
Based on the Politico/RCP average, Obama has 157 ECVs from swing or purple states, 153 ECVs from solid-blue Democratic states, and 54 ECVs from Democratic blue-leaning states, for a grand total of 364 ECVs.  McCain only has 11 ECVs from purple states, 139 ECVs from solid-red Republican states, and 24 ECVs from Republican red-leaning states, for a measly total of 174 ECVs.
 

 
 
McCain gets desperate
as Obama retains lead
 
 
By MITCH R. CONFESOR
a.k.a Jason Hussein Bourne
(OIC) Obamanos-in-Chief
Filipinos for Obama Movement
Philippines-America for Obama
 
 
MANILA – The campaign of Arizona Senator John McCain, the losing Republican presidential candidate, is now getting desperate in its personal attacks against the noble character of his Democratic rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, in the days leading to their second debate on Tuesday night (Wednesday morning here in Manila).
 
McCain’s vitriolic attacks against Obama came as three more recent nationwide surveys show that the Democratic senator is now cementing his lead in the race for the White House, with about 8 percent believing that he must become the next president of the United States.
 
The latest CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey conducted among likely voters from October 3-5 shows that Obama garners 53 percent of the votes as he defeats McCain at 45 percent.
 
The present 8-point lead, with an error margin of 3.5 points, is now twice the previous 4-percent lead from the late September poll showing Obama garnering 51 percent of the votes in defeating McCain at 47 percent.
 
Meanwhile, the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted among likely voters from October 4-5 shows Obama with a 6-percent lead as he gets 49 percent of the votes compared to McCain who merely gets 43 percent, with an error margin of 3.8 points.
 
Moreover, the latest CBS News survey conducted among likely voters from October 3-5 shows Obama with a 3-percent lead as he scores 48 percent of the votes to beat McCain at 45 percent, with an error margin of 3 points.
 

 
 
Biden wins veep debate
 
 
By MITCH R. CONFESOR
a.k.a Jason Hussein Bourne
(OIC) Obamanos-in-Chief
Filipinos for Obama Movement
Philippines-America for Obama
 
 
MANILA – Not bad for Sarah Palin … but good for Joe Biden!
 
Palin delivered, but doubts lingered.  Biden was just plain better.
 
According to critics and pundits, there were jabs but no uppercuts.  There were punches but no knockouts.
 
Sarah charmed but ducked questions.  Joe gave the real blows to the Republican frontrunner John McCain, and built the case for his Democratic running-mate Barack Obama.
 
But the ratings said it all.  CNN gave a 15-percent advantage for Biden, who garnered 54 percent as against Palin with 39 percent.
 
An MSNBC online survey of almost a million respondents gave Biden a 10-point margin at 50 percent and Palin at 40 percent, with almost 5 percent saying it was a tie.
 
With this, the Filipinos for Obama Movement and their Philippines-America for Obama (Phil-Am for Bam) online social network affiliates congratulate Biden for winning a convincing victory over Palin on who will best be elected as the next Vice President of the United States.
 

 
 
Bam beats Mac
7% in AP-GfK,
9% in CBS polls
 
 
By MITCH R. CONFESOR
a.k.a Jason Hussein Bourne
(OIC) Obamanos-in-Chief
Filipinos for Obama Movement
Philippines-America for Obama
 
 
MANILA – The OBAMANOS Filipinos for Obama Movement is exhilarated with the results of the latest Associated Press-GfK and CBS News polls showing Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois nearing his very historic inauguration as the next President of the United States.
 
Filipinos for Obama and their affiliates in the Philippines-America for Obama (Phil-Am for Bam) movement have expressed exhilaration with two newest surveys showing Obama leading by 7 percent in AP-GfK and 9 percent in CBS News over Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona in the U.S. presidential elections on November 4.
 
Both conducted from September 27-30 to measure the outcome of the race for the White House next month, the latest AP-GfK poll shows Obama scoring 48 percent against McCain at 41 percent, with an error margin of 3.4 percent, while the newest CBS News survey shows the Illinois senator beating his Arizona colleague at 50 versus 41 percent, with an error margin of 3 points.
 
Moreover, in a new Ipsos-McClatchy poll showing his 4-point lead, Obama garners 46 percent to beat McCain at 42 percent.
 
Meanwhile, two other surveys from Quinnipiac University and Time/CNN reveal a battleground state-by-state breakdown showing Obama beating McCain in the so-called purple states, or swing states now swinging in favor of the Democrats.
 
The Quinnipiac Univ. survey shows that Obama leads McCain by 15 percent in Pennsylvania and 8 percent each in Ohio and Florida, while the Time/CNN poll reveals that Obama beats McCain by 11 percent in Minnesota, 9 percent in Virginia, 4 percent each in Florida and Nevada, and 1 percent in Missouri.
 
In the Quinnipiac Univ. survey, Obama trounces McCain in Pennsylvania with a 54-39 lead, in Ohio with a 50-42 lead, and in Florida with a 51-43 lead.
 
And in the Time/CNN poll conducted from September 28-30 with an error margin of 4 points, Obama defeats McCain in Minnesota with a 54-43 lead, in Virginia with a 53-44 lead, in Florida and Nevada each with a 51-47 lead, and in Missouri with a 49-48 lead.
 
Further, in a KCCI survey in Des Moines, the junior Illinois senator outraces the senior Arizona senator by 16 percent in Iowa, with Obama garnering 55 percent to beat McCain at 39 percent.