UncategorizedJuly 3, 2008 8:13 am

30 June 2008

Quinnipiac poll: Obama
leads in 4 swing states

 

 

17% in Minnesota: Obama 54, McCain 37
 
13% in Wisconsin: Obama 52, McCain 39
 
6% in Michigan: Obama 48, McCain 42
 
5% in Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The purple states are now slowly turning to the blue corner.
 
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain in four battleground states, according to a survey on the so-called swing states released on Thursday that pollsters said could point to a broad Obama victory in November.
 
The Quinnipiac University poll found Obama leading McCain in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, which strategists view as among the closely fought states that could determine the outcome of the race.
 
“If these numbers were to hold, it would be very difficult to see how Senator Obama doesn’t win the presidency by a very comfortable margin,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the poll.
 
The poll found Obama leads 49 to 44 percent in Colorado, 48 to 42 percent in Michigan, 52 to 39 percent in Wisconsin and 54 to 37 percent in Minnesota.
 
The margin of error in each state was around 2.6 percentage points.
 
The U.S. presidential race is not determined by a simple popular vote, but instead by counting the electoral votes of the states each candidate wins.
 
Populous California has 55 electoral votes, while sparsely populated Montana has 3. A total of 270 is needed for victory.
 
Candidates recently devoted most of their campaigning to a handful of “swing” states that could line up behind either candidate.
 
A Quinnipiac poll last week found Obama leading McCain in the largest swing states – Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.
 
In this week’s poll, Obama held strong leads among women, minorities, independent voters and young voters.
 
McCain led among men in Colorado and white voters in Michigan, where Obama’s overall lead was narrower. Roughly three-quarters of those polled said their minds were made up.

Uncategorized 8:11 am


WHAT’S IN A NAME? Volunteers for Barack Obama from Columbus, Ohio, who have adopted his middle name Hussein use it on the Internet and in greeting one another. They include (from left) J. T. Marcum, Aaron Barclay, Alex Enderle, Norm Shoemaker, and Chelsey McCune.

NEW YORK TIMES/Kirk Irwin

Obama supporters take
his name as their own
 
 
By JODI KANTOR
New York Times 
June 29, 2008
 
 
EMILY Nordling has never met a Muslim, at least not to her knowledge. But this spring, Ms. Nordling, a 19-year-old student from Fort Thomas, Kentucky, gave herself a new middle name on Facebook.com, mimicking her boyfriend and shocking her father.
 
“Emily Hussein Nordling,” her entry now reads.
 
With her decision, she joined a growing band of supporters of Senator Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, who are expressing solidarity with him by informally adopting his middle name.
 
The result is a group of unlikely-sounding Husseins: Jewish and Catholic, Hispanic and Asian and Italian-American, from Jaime Hussein Alvarez of Washington, D.C., to Kelly Hussein Crowley of Norman, Oklahoma, to Sarah Beth Hussein Frumkin of Chicago.
 
Jeff Strabone of Brooklyn now signs credit card receipts with his newly assumed middle name, while Dan O’Maley of Washington, D.C., jiggered his e-mail account so his name would appear as “D. Hussein O’Maley.”
 
Alex Enderle made the switch online along with several other Obama volunteers from Columbus, Ohio, and now friends greet him that way in person, too.
 
Mr. Obama is a Christian, not a Muslim, and Hussein is a family name inherited from a Kenyan father he barely knew, who was born a Muslim and died an atheist. But the name has become a political liability.
 
Some critics on cable television talk shows dwell on it, while others, on blogs or in e-mail messages, use it to falsely assert that Mr. Obama is a Muslim or, more fantastically, a terrorist.
 
“I am sick of Republicans pronouncing Barack Obama’s name like it was some sort of cuss word,” Mr. Strabone wrote in a manifesto titled “We Are All Hussein” that he posted on his own blog and on dailykos.com.
 
So like the residents of Billings, Mont., who reacted to a series of anti-Semitic incidents in 1993 with a townwide display of menorahs in their front windows, these supporters are brandishing the name themselves.
 
“My name is such a vanilla, white-girl American name,” said Ashley Holmes of Indianapolis, who changed her name online “to show how little meaning ‘Hussein’ really has.”
 
The movement is hardly a mass one, and it has taken place mostly online, the digital equivalent of wearing a button with a clever, attention-getting message. A search revealed hundreds of participants across the country, along with a YouTube video and bumper stickers promoting the idea.
 
Legally changing names is too much hassle, participants say, so they use “Hussein” on Facebook and in blog posts and comments on sites like nytimes.com, dailykos.com and mybarackobama.com, the campaign’s networking site.
 
New Husseins began to crop up online as far back as last fall. But more joined up in February after a conservative radio host, Bill Cunningham, used Mr. Obama’s middle name three times and disparaged him while introducing Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, at a campaign rally. (Mr. McCain repudiated Mr. Cunningham’s comments).
 
The practice has been proliferating ever since. In interviews, several Obama supporters said they dreamed up the idea on their own, with no input from the campaign and little knowledge that others shared their thought.
 
Some said they were inspired by movies, including “Spartacus,” the 1960 epic about a Roman slave whose peers protect him by calling out “I am Spartacus!” to Roman soldiers, and “In and Out,” a 1997 comedy about a gay high school teacher whose students protest his firing by proclaiming that they are all gay as well.
 
“It’s one of those things that just takes off, because everybody got it right away,” said Stephanie Miller, a left-leaning comedian who blurted out the idea one day during a broadcast of her syndicated radio talk show and repeated it on CNN.
 
Ms. Miller and her fellow new Husseins are embracing the traditionally Muslim name even as the Obama campaign shies away from Muslim associations. Campaign workers ushered two women in head scarves out of a camera’s range at a rally this month in Detroit, and the campaign has apologized.
 
Aides canceled a December appearance on behalf of Mr. Obama by Representative Keith Ellison, a Minnesota Democrat and the first Muslim congressman.
 
Mr. Obama may be more enthusiastic, judging from his response at a Chicago fund-raiser two weeks ago. When he saw that Richard Fizdale, a longtime contributor, wore “Hussein” on his name tag, Mr. Obama broke into a huge grin, Mr. Fizdale said.
 
“The theory was, we’re all Hussein,” Mr. Obama said to the crowd later, explaining Mr. Fizdale’s gesture.
 
Some Obama supporters say they were moved to action because of what their own friends, neighbors and relatives were saying about their candidate.
 
Mark Elrod, a political science professor at Harding University in Searcy, Arkansas, is organizing students and friends to declare their Husseinhood on Facebook on Aug. 4, Mr. Obama’s birthday.
 
Ms. Nordling changed her name after volunteering for Mr. Obama before the Kentucky primary.
 
“People would not listen to what you were saying on the phone or on their doorstep because they thought he was Muslim,” she said.
 
Ms. Nordling’s uncle liked the idea so much that he joined the same Facebook group that she had. But when her father saw her new online moniker, he was incredulous.
 
“He actually thought I was going to convert to Islam,” Ms. Nordling said.

Uncategorized 8:10 am

25 June 2008

L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll:
Bam leads Mac by 12-15 pts.


Comparable data from Survey USA on possible Electoral College Votes results as of March.
 
 
Barack-John head-to-head match-up:

49% vs. 37%

(with Nader and Barr) Obama-McCain:

48% vs. 33% 

Error margin: 3%

WASHINGTON – Buoyed by enthusiasm among Democrats and public concern over the economy, Sen. Barack Obama (Democrat from Illinois) has captured a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain (Republican from Arizona) at the opening of the general election campaign for president, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.
 
In a two-man race between the major party candidates, registered voters chose Obama over McCain by 49 to 37 percent in the national poll conducted last weekend.
 
On a four-man ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain by an even larger margin, 48 to 33 percent.
 
Obama’s advantage, bigger in this poll than in most other national surveys, appears to stem in large part from his positions on domestic issues. Both Democrats and independent voters say Obama would do a better job than McCain at handling the nation’s economic problems, the public’s top concern.
 
In contrast, many voters give McCain credit as the more experienced candidate and the one best equipped to protect the nation against terrorism – but they rank those concerns below their worries about the economy.
 
Moreover, McCain suffers from a pronounced “enthusiasm gap,” especially among the conservatives who usually give Republican candidates a reliable base of support.
 
Among voters who describe themselves as conservative, only 58 percent say they will vote for McCain; 15 percent say they will vote for Obama, 14 percent say they will vote for someone else, and 13 percent say they are undecided. By contrast, 79 percent of voters who describe themselves as liberal say they plan to vote for Obama.
 
Even among voters who say they do plan to vote for McCain, more than half say they are “not enthusiastic” about their chosen candidate; only 45 percent say they are enthusiastic. By contrast, 81 percent of Obama voters say they are enthusiastic, and almost half call themselves “very enthusiastic,” a level of zeal that only 13 percent of McCain’s supporters display.
 
“McCain is not capturing the full extent of the conservative base the way President Bush did in 2000 and 2004,” said Susan Pinkus, director of the LA Times poll. “Among conservatives, evangelicals and voters who identify themselves as part of the religious right, he is polling less than 60 percent.”
 
“Meanwhile, Obama is doing well among a broad range of voters,” she said. “He’s running ahead among women, black voters and other minorities. He’s running roughly even among white voters and independents.”
 
Among white voters, Obama and McCain are dead even at 39 percent each, the poll found. Earlier this year, when Obama ran behind Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (Democrat of New York) among white voters in some primary elections, analysts questioned whether the African American senator could win white voters in the general election.
 
But the great majority of Clinton voters have transferred their allegiance to Obama, the poll found. Only 11 percent of Clinton voters have defected to McCain.
 
Nader, a consumer advocate who ran as the candidate of the Green Party in 2000 and as an independent in 2004, and Barr, a former Georgia congressman, both appear to siphon more votes from McCain than they do from Obama.
 
When Nader and Barr are added to the ballot, they draw most of their support from voters who said they would otherwise vote for the Republican.
 
Obama’s strong showing also stems from a broader trend among voters of support for Democratic candidates and Democratic positions after almost eight years of an increasingly unpopular Republican administration.
 
In this national poll’s random sample of voters, 39 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 22 percent as Republicans, and 27 percent as independents. In a similar poll a year ago, 33 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans, and 30 percent as independents.
 
The survey found public approval of President Bush’s job performance at a new low for the LA Times/Bloomberg poll: only 23 percent approved of the job Bush is doing, and 73 percent disapproved.
 
A bare majority of 51 percent of voters said they have a “positive feeling” about the Democratic Party; only 29 percent said they have a positive feeling about the Republican Party.
 
“It’s a Democratic year,” Pinkus said. “This election is the Democrats’ to lose.”
 
The LA Times/Bloomberg poll, conducted under Pinkus’ supervision, interviewed 1,115 registered voters across the nation June 19-23. The poll’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
 

 

Uncategorized 8:06 am

24 June 2008

Newsweek poll: Obama jumps
to 15-percent lead over McCain

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Democratic White House hopeful Barack Obama has surged to a 15-point lead over Republican John McCain in the latest Newsweek poll out last June 20, by far the biggest margin of any recent survey.
 
The magazine’s poll gave Obama 51 percent to 36 percent for McCain among registered voters nationwide – three times the margin of four to five points that other polls this week have given the Illinois senator.
 
Obama is enjoying a post-primary bounce after seeing off the dogged challenge of his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton earlier this month, and supporters of the former first lady are flocking to his side, Newsweek said.
 
“The latest numbers on voter dissatisfaction suggest that Obama may enjoy more than one bounce. The new poll finds that only 14 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction of the country,” it reported.
 
The magazine cautioned that polls this far out from November’s election can be unreliable, but noted that Obama was performing much better than either of the Democrats’ last two nominees, John Kerry and Al Gore, at this stage.
 
Its poll, which was conducted by telephone over June 18-19 and had a four-point margin of error, backed other surveys that give Obama a commanding lead over McCain on the economy and jobs.
 
The Democrat also led by 48 percent to 34 on energy policy, Newsweek said, “despite McCain’s attempts this week to turn voters his way by supporting some new oil drilling and renewing his call for a gas (gasoline) tax holiday.”
 
Obama had a narrower margin of six points on the Iraq war, an area where McCain has led in other polls.
 
The Democrat’s hefty overall lead was built on a major slice of Clinton’s support, women, who preferred him to McCain by 21 points – 54 percent versus 33.
 
In its previous survey last month, Newsweek found that 34 percent of Clinton supporters would rather vote for McCain than Obama in November. But now, that figure was down to 18 percent, with 69 percent backing Obama.
 
Registered independents, a pivotal voting bloc, were evenly split in last month’s poll but now support Obama by 48 percent to 36 percent for McCain.

Uncategorized 7:58 am

19 June 2008

 

New poll: Obama leads
McCain in purple states
 
 

 
12% in Pennsylvania: 52 versus 40 percentage points;
6% in Ohio: 48 vs. 42 pts.; 4% in Florida: 47 vs. 43 pts.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Sen. Barack Obama is leading Sen. John McCain in the crucial swing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, according to a new survey of the so-called battleground or purple states.
 
Obama lost the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania by 9 percentage points. But a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows him leading McCain by 12 points, 52 to 40 percent.
 
In Ohio, a state Obama lost to Sen. Hillary Clinton by 10 points in March, he’s leading McCain 48 to 42 percent.
 
And in Florida, where he did not campaign this primary season and lost an unsanctioned Democratic contest, he leads McCain 47 to 43 percent.
 
The Ohio and Florida results are reversals from Quinnipiac polls published a month ago, when Clinton was still in the race and McCain led Obama in hypothetical match-ups.
 
In the waning days of her campaign, Clinton argued to voters and superdelegates that she should be the nominee because she was the stronger candidate to beat McCain in these swing states during the general election.
 
Democrats in all three swing states say they’d like to see her on the ballot this fall, but independent voters give the idea a thumbs-down by margins of 9 to 16 percent.
 
Florida clinched the presidency for George W. Bush in 2000, and Ohio did the same in 2004.
 
Quinnipiac surveyed between 1,300 and 1,500 voters in each state June 9-16. The polls had margins of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for Pennsylvania and 2.6 percentage points for Ohio and Florida.
 
If the swing state momentum for Obama catches on all over the country, there may be a new electoral map.
 
The latest CNN national poll, conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation, shows Obama running strongest in the West – and not just California.
 
“The 10 Rocky Mountain states have been traditionally the most Republican part of the country. So that’s why it’s so amazing that the polls show Obama doing well out here,” said Bob Loevy, a political science professor at Colorado College.
 
Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, three Western states that Bush carried by narrow margins in 2004, now look vulnerable to a Democratic takeover, even though they all border McCain’s Arizona.
 
So what’s behind the change?
 
“In the upper-class suburbs of Denver that used to be so solidly Republican, a lot of aspects of the Bush administration have not played well there,” Loevy said. “His war policies, his policies on abortion, gay marriage … simply have not played well with the old Republican Party out there in the Rocky Mountain west. So it’s in the upscale suburbs that we see the strongest shift to the Democrats.”

Uncategorized 7:56 am

18 June 2008

BARACK’S 50-STATE STRATEGY:


 
 
Even without Ohio, Florida
…still likely win for Obama
 
 
FLINT, Mich. – Barack Obama’s campaign envisions a path to the presidency that could include Virginia, Georgia and several Rocky Mountain states, but not necessarily the pair of battlegrounds that decided the last two elections – Florida and Ohio.
 
In a private pitch late last week to donors and former supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe outlined several alternatives to reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House that runs counter to the conventional wisdom of recent elections.
 
At a fundraiser held at a Washington brewery Friday, Plouffe told a largely young crowd that the electoral map would be fundamentally different from the one in 2004. Wins in Ohio and Florida would guarantee Obama the presidency if he holds onto the states won by Democrat John Kerry, Plouffe said, but those two battlegrounds aren’t required for victory.
 
Florida, which has 27 electoral votes this year, gave the presidency to George W. Bush in the disputed election of 2000. Ohio, with its 20 electoral votes, ensured Bush of re-election in 2004 in his race against Kerry.
 
Neither state was hospitable to Obama this year. Clinton handily won in Ohio and she prevailed in Florida although the national party had punished the state and the candidates didn’t campaign there.
 
The presumed Democratic nominee’s electoral math counts on holding onto the states Kerry won, among them Michigan (17 electoral votes), where Obama campaigns on Monday and Tuesday.
 
Plouffe said most of the Kerry states should be reliable for Obama, but three currently look relatively competitive with Republican rival John McCain – Pennsylvania, Michigan and particularly New Hampshire.
 
Asked about his remarks, Plouffe said Ohio and Florida start out very competitive – but he stressed that they are not tougher than other swing states and said Obama will play “extremely hard” for both. But he said the strategy is not reliant on one or two states.
 
“You have a lot of ways to get to 270,” Plouffe said. “Our goal is not to be reliant on one state on November 4th.”
 
Plouffe has been pitching such a new approach to the electoral map in calls and meetings, according to several people who discussed the conversations on the condition of anonymity because they were meant to be private. Plouffe confirmed the descriptions in the interview.
 
Plouffe and his aides are weighing where to contest, and where chances are too slim to marshal a large effort. A win in Virginia (13 electoral votes) or Georgia (15 votes) could give Obama a shot if he, like Kerry, loses Ohio or Florida.
 
Plouffe also has been touting Obama’s appeal in once Republican-leaning states where Democrats have made gains in recent gubernatorial and congressional races, such as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Montana, Alaska and North Dakota.
 
Obama’s campaign has spent heavily on time and money in Virginia, where a Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t won since 1964. In recent elections, however, high-profile Republicans have lost there. And in a sign of how serious Obama is taking the state, Plouffe dispatched to Virginia many aides who helped Obama stage his upset win in the Iowa caucuses Jan. 3.
 
The key, Plouffe told supporters, will be to register new black voters and new young voters in Virginia.
 
Likewise, Georgia has many unregistered black voters who could turn out in record numbers to support the first major-party nominee who is black, he argued. Plouffe said the campaign also will keep an eye on Mississippi and Louisiana as the race moves into the fall to see if new black voters could put them within reach.
 
In a telling bit of scheduling, Obama declared himself within reach of the nomination at the statehouse in Iowa, yet another state he hopes to put in play.
 
Plouffe is warning Democrats that McCain is an appealing candidate who has proved he can take votes from the middle before and could do so again. McCain won New Hampshire as a GOP candidate in 2000 and 2008, thanks in large part to the state’s high number of independent voters.
 
Clinton won Michigan’s renegade primary after the national party stripped the state of its delegates for moving its contest to January. Obama’s name wasn’t even on the ballot. Clinton handily won the Pennsylvania primary in April, gaining strong support from white, working-class voters.
 
Plouffe argues that McCain squandered his opportunity to reach independent voters in the past three months.
 
McCain’s aides acknowledge frustration among fellow Republicans for the slow-to-start campaign. Even though McCain clinched his party’s nomination in early March, his supporters didn’t name operatives to run the must-win states, let alone open offices in key states.
 
While Democrats hammered each other in their marathon contest, McCain left aides from his primary states sitting still, waiting for orders. It took more than two months for McCain’s national headquarters to approve budgets for the battleground states.
 
The task, Plouffe said, is to define McCain as tied to Bush on the economy, the war and abortion rights. He said the campaign will go on offense against McCain, besides playing aggressive defense when criticized.
 
That promise was also given by Obama, who said Friday night, “If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun.” Critics have questioned why a candidate who promotes a new kind of politics planned such bare-knuckles tactics.
 
Among independent voters, McCain and Obama are about tied in favorability ratings in recent polls.
 
Plouffe in recent days has been making his pitch aggressively – part cheerleading, part sales job. Many of Clinton’s supporters remain frustrated with how national Democrats resolved the issue of Michigan’s delegates, agreeing to seat all of them at the nominating convention but penalizing them by half for violating the calendar, and Plouffe has tried to quell that frustration.
 
He wraps up the pitches by asking Democrats to imagine Obama taking the oath of office. On Friday at the Capitol City Brewery, about a block from where that would happen, Plouffe pointed toward the Capitol steps to reinforce the visual.